Humpty Dumpty - A Metaphor for Peace

The modern version of the nursery rhyme is...

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king's horses and all the king's men
Couldn't put Humpty together again

Humpty Dumpty is a metaphor for peace.

We build instruments of war as a deterrent, so that we may preserve peace. In medieval times you built castles to hold onto key pieces of land. In addition these castles were there to protect the peasants that worked the land. This is the part of the poem where Humpty is sitting on the wall. We've deluded ourselves into believing that peace can be preserved through the preparation for war.

Ironically this deterrent system actually pushes us into preemptive strikes. We convince ourselves that the other side is going to attack and in order to save lives, we need to attack first. Humpty, peace, is broken through this war preparation. The engine of war having been revved by both sides is unleashed.

The third line represents the war itself. Who fights this war, the king's horses and men. All their fighting is in vain as the peace, as they knew it, can never be put back together. People will die, animals will be slaughtered and farms will be burned.

2016 Election - South Carolina Primaries

Gillibrand Campaign

I've accepted an offer to appear on the Rachel Maddow Show. If my appearance goes well it will give my campaign a much needed jolt of energy.

My message is not sinking in, I keep losing states by three points to Warner. In order to shake things up I've begun discussions with Schweitzer about an official endorsement. He said he would think about it and get back to me by next week.

I'm building get out the vote operations in Missouri and Virginia. Even in my wildest dreams I don't expect to win Warner's home state but getting over the 15% hurdle will allow me to win some delegates in the state.

I'm spending today campaigning in South Carolina before studying the issues.

My first negative campaign has been completed, it's tough and I hope voters in the swing states don't hold it against me. I've commissioning a second attack ad against Warner. I need to blunt his momentum ahead of super tuesday or the race will be all but over.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

Warner has won South Carolina over Gillibrand and has earned 23 pledged delegates, close behind Gillibrand earned herself 22 delegates and the only other candidate to do so was Governor Cuomo with 17 delegates.

While Gillibrand has not fallen behind in the delegate count, losing four straight contests to her rival Warner has moved all the momentum into his corner.

 Arizona is 19 days away followed by super tuesday 26 days later.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	12.0	56	56
Schwietzer	9.5	0	23
Warner	20.2	77	2615
Gillibrand	18.4	73	2077
Beebe	2.4	0	0
Casey	3.3	0	251
Hagan	5.7	0	71
O'Malley	3.4	0	120

Republican Primary

This past week has been a boon for Senator Thune. He won in Minnesota, Colorado and South Carolina. Senator Rubio won only in Nevada. Each of these states award all of their delegates to the winner allowing Thune to catch up to Rubio in the pledged delegate count.

Upcoming contests in the republican primaries include Maine in a week. After which the campaigns will look to Arizona and Michigan in 3 week. All three of these states could go to either Rubio or Thune.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Thune	18.9	104	247
Rubio	20.4	109	453
Christie	13.9	2	80
Jindal	8.3	0	15
Daniels	4.2	0	54
Ryan	8.7	0	98
Brownback	4.0	0	49
Ayotte	3.9	4	13

General Election

As more of the electorate has moved from undecided to leaning towards a particular party the race is expected to shift. This week the polls have moved almost a point in the democrats favour. In statewide polling this has seen them take a 5 point lead in Nevada moving the state from tossup to lean democrat. Democrats have also managed to move Pennsylvania back to the tossup closing the republican lead to only 3 points. Republicans did move into a tie in Virginia and pushed their lead in North Carolina to 8 points.

Republicans still have enough support to lose all the swing states and still win the presidency.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	37.3	+0.9	207	+6
Republican	40.0	+0.1	288	-20

Blue Jays 2013 Lineup

With TSN reporting that Melky Cabrera has signed a two year contract with the Blue Jays the 2013 lineup is starting to take shape. Using player statistics from fangraphs over the last three seasons, I'm going to predict the run totals above average for the next season. I used the generated AB for 2013 by Rotochamp's simulation version 2013.03.

Pos	Player	AB	Fielding	Batting	Rep	AB	RAR/AB	RAR	WAR
C	JP Arencibia	425	3.1	-13.9	29.8	825	0.0230	9.79	0.98
1B	Adam Lind	425	-36.4	-15.6	50.3	1389	-0.0012	-0.52	-0.05
2B	Emilio Bonifacio	490	-2.9	14	37.2	989	0.0488	23.93	2.39
3B	Brett Lawrie	535	14.6	15.6	23.6	644	0.0835	44.69	4.47
SS	Jose Reyes	555	8	57.3	63.5	1742	0.0739	41.04	4.10
RF	Jose Bautista	475	-26.4	142.3	57.9	1414	0.1229	58.38	5.84
CF	Colby Rasmus	500	-10.1	15.3	56.2	1500	0.0409	20.47	2.05
LF	Melky Cabrera	545	-27.4	43.5	57.2	1575	0.0465	25.36	2.54
DH	Edwin Encarnacion	515	-38.7	57.6	51.4	1355	0.0804	41.43	4.14
C	John Buck	250	21.3	-10.1	45.5	1218	0.0466	11.64	1.16
1B	David Cooper	160	-8.3	-0.4	7.5	211	-0.0057	-0.91	-0.09
IF	Maicer Izturis	295	4.6	-1.4	35	950	0.0402	11.86	1.19
OF	Rajai Davis	270	-27.6	-4	46.2	1292	0.0113	3.05	0.31
IF	Mike McCoy	120	10.6	-17.1	12.5	331	0.0181	2.18	0.22

The columns Fielding, Batting, Rep, AB, and RAR/AB are using statistics from 2010 to 2012 provided by Fangraphs. 

The column AB is an exrapolation of 2013 numbers provided by Rotochamp. 

The RAR and WAR columns are calculated using the other columns to predict player output. 

It should also be noted that Encranacion does not have his fielding applied to his total as he is the DH. 

What instantly pops out from the extrapolation are the poor numbers by Adam Lind. Encarnacion would be a big upgrade at first base but his fielding isn't any better than Linds. 

2016 Election - New Hampshire Primary

Gillibrand Campaign

I lost by three points in Iowa and Nevada. I only have 2 less pledged delegates than Warner but he has more momentum in the race. The New Hampshire Primary is today; I'm four points down with a lot of momentum but momentum didn't help me in Nevada. After New Hampshire there is only South Carolina, in 7 days, before a month long break.

I'm planning on making my last stand on super tuesday where 10 states go to the polls, those being: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Georgia, Oklahoma, Colorado, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. I'm blanketing the state in three advertisements for the next 6 weeks. In between super tuesday and today Arizona has a primary and the day after super tuesday Hawaii elects its delegates by caucus.

I'm commissioning my first negative attack ad of the campaign, I'm hitting Warner on his lack of leadership while in the senate. It will be done by next week and I can air it across super tuesday states.

I'm building infrastructure to help get out the vote in Arizona and Texas. I'm spending today campaigning in New Hampshire before I brush up on the issues. After cramming my head full of knowledge I'll campaign in South Carolina two days straight.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

Warner Wins New Hampshire! In what is soon becoming a trademark, Warner wins another democratic contest by 3 points over Gillibrand. Cuomo comes a distant third, 8 points back of Warner. These three candidates split the delegates 13, 12 & 10.

Gillibrand despite this being the third time she has come up short is only 3 delegates behind frontrunner Warner. Super tueday could be the end of her campaign, she is running behind Warner by 4 points in 5 of the 10 states with all the momentum on Warner's side.

Cuomo the only other candidate with pledged delegates is not favoured to win any state including his home state of New York where he battles fellow New Yorker Gillibrand for the honour.

South Carolina Primaries are today, Arizona 26 days away followed by super tuesday 33 days from today.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	12.2	39	173
Schwietzer	9.3	0	31
Warner	19.6	54	2290
Gillibrand	17.9	51	1952
Beebe	2.3	0	30
Casey	3.2	0	251
Hagan	5.7	0	87
O'Malley	3.4	0	120

Republican Primary

Native Daughter Ayotte crowned winner in New Hampshire. The junior senator from the granite state comes away with an 8 point win mere days after polls indicated a three way tie with Rubio and Thune. New Hampshire is one of the states that award delegates proportional to voting and Ayotte picked up 4 delegates. Also picking up delegates are Senator Thune, Senator Rubio and Governor Christie.

Senator Rubio won his home state of Florida a few days later by over twenty points. The sunshine state is winner take all and Rubio collects all 50 delegates for his efforts.

Neither contest is expected to shift the race much as most already expected Ayotte and Rubio to win their home states. The real test for campaigns will be in South Carolina today, Nevada 2 days from now and Colorado/Minnesota later this week. 9 days from now Maine holds their Caucuses

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Thune	18.3	3	109
Rubio	20.3	81	460
Christie	13.8	2	80
Jindal	8.3	0	15
Daniels	4.3	0	53
Ryan	8.6	0	103
Brownback	3.9	0	48
Ayotte	3.8	4	12

General Election

Further movement this week towards the republicans, Pennsylvania has moved from tossup to lean Republican. The Republicans moved one solid step closer to a landslide this election cycle. Not everything is doom and gloom in Democratic lands, of the four remaining tossups Democrats are behind in only one; Iowa. They lead in Nevada, Virginia and New Hampshire. If the election were held today, Democrats would still be well short of victory. Even with those tossups added to their column they would only have 224 electoral votes out of a needed 270.

Republicans lead in Pennsylvania by 4, Wisconsin by 5, North Carolina by 5, Colorado by 5, Ohio by 5.5, and Michigan by 6.5. State polls, in addition to national polls shows a large advantage for Republicans.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	36.4	-0.2	201	0
Republican	39.9	+0.2	308	+20

2016 Election - Iowa and Nevada decided

Gillibrand Campaign

The Iowa Caucuses are today and I'm still 2.5 points down.

Campaign infrastructure will be improved in New Hampshire and South Carolina. I'm visiting Iowa on the day of the Caucuses to rally support. Later in the week I'm hitting Nevada and New Hampshire before campaigning in Nevada the day of their caucuses.

I'm airing both my ads in all four states with upcoming primaries/caucuses. I'm also commissioning a third ad that centres on my immigration position.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

Warner Wins Iowa! Three candidates managed to come away with more than the minimum required to gain delegates. Warner lead the way with 24.8%, followed closely by Gillibrand with 21.7% and Cuomo with 16.7%. The three candidates received 24, 23 and 18 delegates respectively.

Warner Wins Nevada! In eerily similar fashion Warner, Gillibrand and Cuomo were 1,2,3 in the popular vote. Warner hauled away 17 delegates, Gillibrand 16 and Cuomo 11. 

With Warner leading Gillibrand by 4 points in New Hampshire this race could be over just as soon as it officially starts. On the positive side, Gillibrand has moved to within 0.5 points in South Carolina. Gillibrand does have enough campaign resources to make it to Super Tuesday 40 days hence.

New Hampshire Primaries are 1 day away, followed by South Carolina Primaries in 7 days.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	12.2	29	163
Schwietzer	9.2	0	31
Warner	19.2	41	2324
Gillibrand	17.9	39	1958
Beebe	2.3	0	0
Casey	3.2	0	251
Hagan	5.6	0	87
O'Malley	3.5	0	120

Republican Primary

Rubio Wins Iowa! The margin of victory were tens of votes in this ultra competitive caucus over South Dakota Senator John Thune. Rubio who has now moved a point up in New Hampshire over Thune and native daughter Kelly Ayotte could begin to run away with the Republican nomination.

Upcoming republican primaries and caucuses include New Hampshire in 0 days, Florida in 5 days, South Carolina in 7 days, Nevada in 9 days, Colorado / Minnesota in 12 days and Maine in 16 days. Thune and Rubio are separated in South Carolina and Nevada by only half a point. Rubio does have a slight advantage over Thune in Colorado (1 point), Minnesota (2 points) and Maine (2 points).

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Thune	18.6	0	297
Rubio	19.1	28	273
Christie	13.7	0	80
Jindal	8.5	0	15
Daniels	3.9	0	54
Ryan	8.4	0	102
Brownback	3.9	0	48
Ayotte	3.9	0	11

General Election

On this gentle see saw that is the general election the race has tilted once again back to the Republicans. New Hampshire has moved from lean Democratic to tossup and Colorado has moved from tossup to lean Republican. Republican also increased their lead in Iowa and Ohio, and decreased their deficit in Nevada.

The Democrats did managed to reduce their deficit in North Carolina to 5 points and are now only 6.5 points down in the sunshine state.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	36.6	0.0	201	-4
Republican	39.7	+0.2	288	+9

Blue Jays Trade

From initial TSN reports this trade looks to be a gigantic get for the Blue Jays. They picked up talented players, some in positions they are already stocked in but they had to pay for it with young players and prospects.

To the Jays
SP - Mark Buehele
SP - Josh Johnson
SS - Jose Reyes
C  - John Buck
CF - Emilio Bonifacio

To the Marlins
SP - Henderson Alvarez
SS - Yunel Escobar
SS - Adeiny Hechavarria
SP - Justin Nicolino
CF - Jake Marisnick
C  - Jeff Mathis

Could the acquisition of John Buck spell the end for JP Arencibia? There is a bit of a logjam at the catcher position with Buck, Arencibia, and hotshot rookie Travis D'arnaud all capable of playing in the major leagues.

The blue jays have a deep prospect pool especially in starting pitchers. The loss of Nicolino hurts but Syndergaard, Sanchez, Osuna and Stroman still combine for one of the most promising stable of starting pitchers in the majors.

Marisnick is a great prospect, ranked the 2nd best prospect in the blue jays system by baseball america, but the jays have two players ahead of him on the depth chart. 25 year old start Colby Rasmus and recent graduate Anthony Gose. With Emilio Bonifacio coming to Toronto in the trade that adds another player who prefers to play CF. Sad to see him go, he is going to be a good if not all star CF but AA is dealing from another position with depth.

Now to the fun part, the math of it all. The easiest comparison is the addition of Jose Reyes and the loss of Yunel Escobar. Escobar over the last 3 years has put up a WAR of 9 and Reyes over the same time period put up a WAR of 9.7. You could say slight advantage Toronto but that doesn't show the whole story. Escobars oWAR is 5.8 while Reyes' is 13.2. Toronto in search of a lead off bat has sacrificed defensive ability at SS in order to add just that.

A blue jays starting 4 of Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, and Hutchinson has been transformed into a starting 4 of Romero, Morrow, Buehrle and Johnson. It's a bit of an upgrade.

The 3 through 6 pitchers on the jays were all average, posting a WAR between 0 and 0.2. Replace two of those with Buehrle who averages 3.5 and Johnson's 3 and you are 6 wins closer to the playoffs. This doesn't include the additional rest that the bullpen will have not having to bailout sub-par starters. Both of these new jay starters have the potential to be all-star calibre and post seasons of 5 or 6 WAR. If Romero returns to form, as he will have a lot less pressure to lead the staff, you could see 4 starting pitchers that could be considered all-stars, and blue jay baseball in October.

2016 Election - Iowa Caucuses 1 week out

Gillibrand Campaign

The Iowa Caucuses are 7 days away, Nevada Caucuses are 13 days away, New Hampshire Primary 14 days away and South Carolina Primary 21 days away.

Last weeks activities has given me to a moderate amount of momentum in Iowa and Nevada. I am going to continue building campaign infrastructure in Nevada and start in New Hampshire.

My campaign stops will include 2 stops in Iowa, a stop in New Hampshire and a stop in Nevada.

The advertisement I commissioned talking about my Leadership abilities will debut in all four states starting today. I've commissioned another advertisement talking about my position for taxes.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

Warner has a 2.5 point lead in Iowa but Gillibrand has strong momentum. A similar situation has developed in Nevada with Warner's lead a single point and Gillibrand having a moderate amount of momentum. Warner has opened a 4.5 point gap over Gillibrand in South Carolina and Gillibrand has shrunk Warner's lead to 2.5 points in New Hampshire.

Nevada Caucuses are in 6 days, New Hampshire Primaries 7 days and South Carolina Primaries in 14 days.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	12.2	0	134
Schwietzer	9.3	0	31
Warner	19.0	0	2345
Gillibrand	17.8	0	1966
Beebe	2.3	0	0
Casey	3.0	0	251
Hagan	5.6	0	87
O'Malley	3.3	0	120

Republican Primary

The Day before the Iowa Caucuses with Rubio and Thune are separated by a tenth of a point. Jindal 10 points back of the two has all of the momentum in the race. Kelly Ayotte's lead in the Granite state has evaporated and she is now deadlocked with Rubio at 16.5 points apiece. Rubio has strong momentum in the state and looks to run away with undecideds which still number in the high double digits.

Upcoming republican primaries and caucuses include New Hampshire in 7 days, Florida in 12 days, South Carolina in 14 days, Nevada in 16 days, and Colorado / Minnesota in 19 days. Rubio still has a huge lead in Florida. Rubio has a few point leads in South Carolina and Colorado. Thune and Rubio are tied in Minnesota and Nevada.

Candidate	Nat %	Delgates	Est. Del
Thune	18.3	0	327
Rubio	19.6	0	217
Christie	13.4	0	80
Jindal	8.1	0	12
Daniels	4.2	0	55
Ryan	8.5	0	101
Brownback	3.9	0	48
Ayotte	3.7	0	12

General Election

Democrats had a good week as the polls moved in their favour. Colorado moved from lean Republican to tossup and the Democrats are only 4 points back in the polls. Likewise Iowa moved from lean Republican to tossup with the Dems trailing by only half a point. The Democrats also managed to move New Hampshire from tossup to lean Democratic, their lead in the Granite State is now 5 points. Viriginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Texas moved towards the Democrats and only Ohio moved towards the Republicans. Republicans are still a clear lock to win the presidency with over 270 electoral votes in the leaning Republican column.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	36.6	+0.2	205	+4
Republican	39.5	-0.1	279	-15