Blue Jays Trade

From initial TSN reports this trade looks to be a gigantic get for the Blue Jays. They picked up talented players, some in positions they are already stocked in but they had to pay for it with young players and prospects.

To the Jays
SP - Mark Buehele
SP - Josh Johnson
SS - Jose Reyes
C  - John Buck
CF - Emilio Bonifacio

To the Marlins
SP - Henderson Alvarez
SS - Yunel Escobar
SS - Adeiny Hechavarria
SP - Justin Nicolino
CF - Jake Marisnick
C  - Jeff Mathis

Could the acquisition of John Buck spell the end for JP Arencibia? There is a bit of a logjam at the catcher position with Buck, Arencibia, and hotshot rookie Travis D'arnaud all capable of playing in the major leagues.

The blue jays have a deep prospect pool especially in starting pitchers. The loss of Nicolino hurts but Syndergaard, Sanchez, Osuna and Stroman still combine for one of the most promising stable of starting pitchers in the majors.

Marisnick is a great prospect, ranked the 2nd best prospect in the blue jays system by baseball america, but the jays have two players ahead of him on the depth chart. 25 year old start Colby Rasmus and recent graduate Anthony Gose. With Emilio Bonifacio coming to Toronto in the trade that adds another player who prefers to play CF. Sad to see him go, he is going to be a good if not all star CF but AA is dealing from another position with depth.

Now to the fun part, the math of it all. The easiest comparison is the addition of Jose Reyes and the loss of Yunel Escobar. Escobar over the last 3 years has put up a WAR of 9 and Reyes over the same time period put up a WAR of 9.7. You could say slight advantage Toronto but that doesn't show the whole story. Escobars oWAR is 5.8 while Reyes' is 13.2. Toronto in search of a lead off bat has sacrificed defensive ability at SS in order to add just that.

A blue jays starting 4 of Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, and Hutchinson has been transformed into a starting 4 of Romero, Morrow, Buehrle and Johnson. It's a bit of an upgrade.

The 3 through 6 pitchers on the jays were all average, posting a WAR between 0 and 0.2. Replace two of those with Buehrle who averages 3.5 and Johnson's 3 and you are 6 wins closer to the playoffs. This doesn't include the additional rest that the bullpen will have not having to bailout sub-par starters. Both of these new jay starters have the potential to be all-star calibre and post seasons of 5 or 6 WAR. If Romero returns to form, as he will have a lot less pressure to lead the staff, you could see 4 starting pitchers that could be considered all-stars, and blue jay baseball in October.