Sunday, 11 November 2012

2016 Election - Introduction

I'm coming off a bit of a 2012 election high and since it's too early to start following the 2014 midterm elections I have decided to have some fun and simulate the 2016 presidential election.

I'm using President Forever 2008 with the United States 2016 (XL2) campaign. I used a random number generator to pick my character and Kirsten Gillibrand was the lucky candidate.

There are eight candidates for both major parties. There seem to be five front runners for the Republicans and four for the Democrats.

Democratic Candidates:

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo

Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer

Virginia Senator Mark Warner

New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand

Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe

Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey

North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan

Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley

Republican Candidates:

South Dakota Senator John Thune

Florida Senator Marco Rubio

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie


Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels

Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan

Kansas Governor Sam Brownback

New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte

Democratic Primary

The Democratic primaries have main contenders New York Senator Gillibrand and Virginia Senator Warner. Warner leads in most states but is not a lock for the nomination with Gillibrand nipping at his heels both in the delegate count and national polls. With the Iowa caucuses two weeks away the race is expected to take a tilt towards the winner: Warner has a slight lead of 20%, Gillibrand 17%, Cuomo 11.5 % and Schweitzer 10%. Most polling has 27.8 % of the electorate still undecided.

Candidate Nat % Delgates Est. Del
Cuomo
11.9
0
0
Schwietzer
9.5
0
31
Warner
19.1
0
2753
Gillibrand
17.6
0
2103
Beebe
2.3
0
0
Casey
3.0
0
251
Hagan
5.7
0
158
O'Malley
3.3
0
120





Republican Primary

The Republican race this year is wide open. There are 5 candidates polling above 8% and 3 candidates projected to win more than 100 delegates. No clear leader has emerged outside the home states of the candidates. The first test of the candidates appeal will occur in two weeks with the Iowa caucuses: Thune and Rubio are locked in a 20% tie for first followed by, Christie 13%, Ryan 8.5% and Jindal 7.5%.

Candidate Nat % Delgates Est. Del
Thune
18.1
0
115
Rubio
19.5
0
423
Christie
13.6
0
77
Jindal
8.2
0
15
Daniels
4.3
0
54
Ryan
8.4
0
101
Brownback
3.9
0
49
Ayotte
3.6
0
13




General Election

The general election starts off tilted towards a generic republican. The democratic candidate that emerges from the primaries will have their work cut out turning this map blue.

Party Nat % Δ % Est. EV Δ EV
Democratic
36.2
0
203
0
Republican
39.6
0
299
0


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