Friday, 16 November 2012

Blue Jays 2013 Lineup

With TSN reporting that Melky Cabrera has signed a two year contract with the Blue Jays the 2013 lineup is starting to take shape. Using player statistics from fangraphs over the last three seasons, I'm going to predict the run totals above average for the next season. I used the generated AB for 2013 by Rotochamp's simulation version 2013.03.

Pos Player AB Fielding Batting Rep AB RAR/AB RAR WAR
C JP Arencibia 425
3.1
-13.9
29.8
825
0.0230
9.79
0.98
1B Adam Lind 425
-36.4
-15.6
50.3
1389
-0.0012
-0.52
-0.05
2B Emilio Bonifacio 490
-2.9
14
37.2
989
0.0488
23.93
2.39
3B Brett Lawrie 535
14.6
15.6
23.6
644
0.0835
44.69
4.47
SS Jose Reyes 555
8
57.3
63.5
1742
0.0739
41.04
4.10
RF Jose Bautista 475
-26.4
142.3
57.9
1414
0.1229
58.38
5.84
CF Colby Rasmus 500
-10.1
15.3
56.2
1500
0.0409
20.47
2.05
LF Melky Cabrera 545
-27.4
43.5
57.2
1575
0.0465
25.36
2.54
DH Edwin Encarnacion 515
-38.7
57.6
51.4
1355
0.0804
41.43
4.14
C John Buck 250
21.3
-10.1
45.5
1218
0.0466
11.64
1.16
1B David Cooper 160
-8.3
-0.4
7.5
211
-0.0057
-0.91
-0.09
IF Maicer Izturis 295
4.6
-1.4
35
950
0.0402
11.86
1.19
OF Rajai Davis 270
-27.6
-4
46.2
1292
0.0113
3.05
0.31
IF Mike McCoy 120
10.6
-17.1
12.5
331
0.0181
2.18
0.22

The columns Fielding, Batting, Rep, AB, and RAR/AB are using statistics from 2010 to 2012 provided by Fangraphs. 
The column AB is an exrapolation of 2013 numbers provided by Rotochamp. 
The RAR and WAR columns are calculated using the other columns to predict player output. 
It should also be noted that Encranacion does not have his fielding applied to his total as he is the DH. 

What instantly pops out from the extrapolation are the poor numbers by Adam Lind. Encarnacion would be a big upgrade at first base but his fielding isn't any better than Linds. 






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