Gillibrand Campaign
I've accepted an offer to appear on the Rachel Maddow Show. If my appearance goes well it will give my campaign a much needed jolt of energy.
My message is not sinking in, I keep losing states by three points to Warner. In order to shake things up I've begun discussions with Schweitzer about an official endorsement. He said he would think about it and get back to me by next week.
I'm building get out the vote operations in Missouri and Virginia. Even in my wildest dreams I don't expect to win Warner's home state but getting over the 15% hurdle will allow me to win some delegates in the state.
I'm spending today campaigning in South Carolina before studying the issues.
My first negative campaign has been completed, it's tough and I hope voters in the swing states don't hold it against me. I've commissioning a second attack ad against Warner. I need to blunt his momentum ahead of super tuesday or the race will be all but over.
*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.
Democratic Primary
Warner has won South Carolina over Gillibrand and has earned 23 pledged delegates, close behind Gillibrand earned herself 22 delegates and the only other candidate to do so was Governor Cuomo with 17 delegates.
While Gillibrand has not fallen behind in the delegate count, losing four straight contests to her rival Warner has moved all the momentum into his corner.
Arizona is 19 days away followed by super tuesday 26 days later.
| Candidate | Nat % | Delegates | Est. Del |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuomo |
12.0
|
56
|
56
|
| Schwietzer |
9.5
|
0
|
23
|
| Warner |
20.2
|
77
|
2615
|
| Gillibrand |
18.4
|
73
|
2077
|
| Beebe |
2.4
|
0
|
0
|
| Casey |
3.3
|
0
|
251
|
| Hagan |
5.7
|
0
|
71
|
| O'Malley |
3.4
|
0
|
120
|
This past week has been a boon for Senator Thune. He won in Minnesota, Colorado and South Carolina. Senator Rubio won only in Nevada. Each of these states award all of their delegates to the winner allowing Thune to catch up to Rubio in the pledged delegate count.
Upcoming contests in the republican primaries include Maine in a week. After which the campaigns will look to Arizona and Michigan in 3 week. All three of these states could go to either Rubio or Thune.
| Candidate | Nat % | Delegates | Est. Del |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thune |
18.9
|
104
|
247
|
| Rubio |
20.4
|
109
|
453
|
| Christie |
13.9
|
2
|
80
|
| Jindal |
8.3
|
0
|
15
|
| Daniels |
4.2
|
0
|
54
|
| Ryan |
8.7
|
0
|
98
|
| Brownback |
4.0
|
0
|
49
|
| Ayotte |
3.9
|
4
|
13
|
General Election
As more of the electorate has moved from undecided to leaning towards a particular party the race is expected to shift. This week the polls have moved almost a point in the democrats favour. In statewide polling this has seen them take a 5 point lead in Nevada moving the state from tossup to lean democrat. Democrats have also managed to move Pennsylvania back to the tossup closing the republican lead to only 3 points. Republicans did move into a tie in Virginia and pushed their lead in North Carolina to 8 points.
Republicans still have enough support to lose all the swing states and still win the presidency.
| Party | Nat % | Δ % | Est. EV | Δ EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |
37.3
|
+0.9
|
207
|
+6
|
| Republican |
40.0
|
+0.1
|
288
|
-20
|
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