Gillibrand Campaign
I lost by three points in Iowa and Nevada. I only have 2 less pledged delegates than Warner but he has more momentum in the race. The New Hampshire Primary is today; I'm four points down with a lot of momentum but momentum didn't help me in Nevada. After New Hampshire there is only South Carolina, in 7 days, before a month long break.
I'm planning on making my last stand on super tuesday where 10 states go to the polls, those being: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Georgia, Oklahoma, Colorado, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. I'm blanketing the state in three advertisements for the next 6 weeks. In between super tuesday and today Arizona has a primary and the day after super tuesday Hawaii elects its delegates by caucus.
I'm commissioning my first negative attack ad of the campaign, I'm hitting Warner on his lack of leadership while in the senate. It will be done by next week and I can air it across super tuesday states.
I'm building infrastructure to help get out the vote in Arizona and Texas. I'm spending today campaigning in New Hampshire before I brush up on the issues. After cramming my head full of knowledge I'll campaign in South Carolina two days straight.
*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.
Democratic Primary
Warner Wins New Hampshire! In what is soon becoming a trademark, Warner wins another democratic contest by 3 points over Gillibrand. Cuomo comes a distant third, 8 points back of Warner. These three candidates split the delegates 13, 12 & 10.
Gillibrand despite this being the third time she has come up short is only 3 delegates behind frontrunner Warner. Super tueday could be the end of her campaign, she is running behind Warner by 4 points in 5 of the 10 states with all the momentum on Warner's side.
Cuomo the only other candidate with pledged delegates is not favoured to win any state including his home state of New York where he battles fellow New Yorker Gillibrand for the honour.
South Carolina Primaries are today, Arizona 26 days away followed by super tuesday 33 days from today.
| Candidate | Nat % | Delegates | Est. Del |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuomo |
12.2
|
39
|
173
|
| Schwietzer |
9.3
|
0
|
31
|
| Warner |
19.6
|
54
|
2290
|
| Gillibrand |
17.9
|
51
|
1952
|
| Beebe |
2.3
|
0
|
30
|
| Casey |
3.2
|
0
|
251
|
| Hagan |
5.7
|
0
|
87
|
| O'Malley |
3.4
|
0
|
120
|
Native Daughter Ayotte crowned winner in New Hampshire. The junior senator from the granite state comes away with an 8 point win mere days after polls indicated a three way tie with Rubio and Thune. New Hampshire is one of the states that award delegates proportional to voting and Ayotte picked up 4 delegates. Also picking up delegates are Senator Thune, Senator Rubio and Governor Christie.
Senator Rubio won his home state of Florida a few days later by over twenty points. The sunshine state is winner take all and Rubio collects all 50 delegates for his efforts.
Neither contest is expected to shift the race much as most already expected Ayotte and Rubio to win their home states. The real test for campaigns will be in South Carolina today, Nevada 2 days from now and Colorado/Minnesota later this week. 9 days from now Maine holds their Caucuses
| Candidate | Nat % | Delegates | Est. Del |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thune |
18.3
|
3
|
109
|
| Rubio |
20.3
|
81
|
460
|
| Christie |
13.8
|
2
|
80
|
| Jindal |
8.3
|
0
|
15
|
| Daniels |
4.3
|
0
|
53
|
| Ryan |
8.6
|
0
|
103
|
| Brownback |
3.9
|
0
|
48
|
| Ayotte |
3.8
|
4
|
12
|
General Election
Further movement this week towards the republicans, Pennsylvania has moved from tossup to lean Republican. The Republicans moved one solid step closer to a landslide this election cycle. Not everything is doom and gloom in Democratic lands, of the four remaining tossups Democrats are behind in only one; Iowa. They lead in Nevada, Virginia and New Hampshire. If the election were held today, Democrats would still be well short of victory. Even with those tossups added to their column they would only have 224 electoral votes out of a needed 270.
Republicans lead in Pennsylvania by 4, Wisconsin by 5, North Carolina by 5, Colorado by 5, Ohio by 5.5, and Michigan by 6.5. State polls, in addition to national polls shows a large advantage for Republicans.
| Party | Nat % | Δ % | Est. EV | Δ EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |
36.4
|
-0.2
|
201
|
0
|
| Republican |
39.9
|
+0.2
|
308
|
+20
|
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