Gillibrand Campaign
With Schweitzer's endorsement I have my first lead nationally and am tied in every upcoming super tuesday state save Virginia.
With the completion of my first network ad. I'm taking a few cable advertisements off the air. The networks are about 5 times more expensive than cable and I'll need the money to air the ad for these final 3 weeks.
My get out the vote operation has been built in Minnesota and Georgia, leaving 4 states without the apparatus.
This week I am making campaign stops in Georgia, Minnesota, Colorado and Massachusetts. I hope to capitilize on the recent infrastructure improvements to drive voters to me.
*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.
Democratic Primary
Another week another endorsement. Governor Beebe has endorsed Senator Warner for democratic nominee. With the endorsement Warner once again becomes the front runner for the nomination. The estimated delegate counter has risen over the minimum needed for victory for Senator Warner. If he can hold off Gillibrand on super tuesday he is poised to run the table and win the nomination.
There are 5 days till Arizona and 12 days to super tuesday with Hawaii the day after.
| Candidate | Nat % | Delegates | Est. Del |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuomo |
13.3
|
56
|
145
|
| Warner |
23.7
|
77
|
2809
|
| Gillibrand |
22.2
|
73
|
2080
|
| Beebe |
0.1
|
0
|
0
|
| Casey |
6.2
|
0
|
251
|
| Hagan |
6.8
|
0
|
53
|
| O'Malley |
3.5
|
0
|
78
|
Thune received the endorsement of Governor Brownback. The endorsement has given Thune a bump to become tied with Rubio nationally.
With Arizona and Michigan 5 days away either of the big two candidates could still propel themselves to front runner status before super tuesday 12 days hence.
| Candidate | Nat % | Delegates | Est. Del |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thune |
21.3
|
128
|
518
|
| Rubio |
21.3
|
109
|
249
|
| Christie |
14.3
|
2
|
80
|
| Jindal |
8.3
|
0
|
61
|
| Daniels |
5.2
|
0
|
55
|
| Ryan |
8.7
|
0
|
58
|
| Brownback |
0.5
|
0
|
0
|
| Ayotte |
3.9
|
4
|
12
|
General Election
A mixed bag of results this week. The democrats are able to move Wisconsin for the first time from lean republican to tossup. The republicans moved Colorado from tossup to lean republican, and both Nevada and New Hampshire from lean democratic to tossup.
The current tossup situation has the republicans: down by four in New Hampshire, down by one and a half in Virginia, down by one in Nevada, up by one and a half in Iowa, up by two in Pennsylvania, and up by three and a half in Wisconsin. If the races were to be called today the republicans would add 36 electoral votes and the democrats would add 23 electoral votes.
As is the case in every general election matchup in 2016 the republicans have enough electoral votes in the lean republican category to win the election without the above mentioned tossups.
| Party | Nat % | Δ % | Est. EV | Δ EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |
38.1
|
+0.6
|
201
|
-10
|
| Republican |
40.4
|
+0.1
|
278
|
-1
|
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