Gillibrand Campaign
The Iowa Caucuses are 7 days away, Nevada Caucuses are 13 days away, New Hampshire Primary 14 days away and South Carolina Primary 21 days away.
Last weeks activities has given me to a moderate amount of momentum in Iowa and Nevada. I am going to continue building campaign infrastructure in Nevada and start in New Hampshire.
My campaign stops will include 2 stops in Iowa, a stop in New Hampshire and a stop in Nevada.
The advertisement I commissioned talking about my Leadership abilities will debut in all four states starting today. I've commissioned another advertisement talking about my position for taxes.
*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.
Democratic Primary
Warner has a 2.5 point lead in Iowa but Gillibrand has strong momentum. A similar situation has developed in Nevada with Warner's lead a single point and Gillibrand having a moderate amount of momentum. Warner has opened a 4.5 point gap over Gillibrand in South Carolina and Gillibrand has shrunk Warner's lead to 2.5 points in New Hampshire.
Nevada Caucuses are in 6 days, New Hampshire Primaries 7 days and South Carolina Primaries in 14 days.
| Candidate | Nat % | Delegates | Est. Del |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuomo |
12.2
|
0
|
134
|
| Schwietzer |
9.3
|
0
|
31
|
| Warner |
19.0
|
0
|
2345
|
| Gillibrand |
17.8
|
0
|
1966
|
| Beebe |
2.3
|
0
|
0
|
| Casey |
3.0
|
0
|
251
|
| Hagan |
5.6
|
0
|
87
|
| O'Malley |
3.3
|
0
|
120
|
The Day before the Iowa Caucuses with Rubio and Thune are separated by a tenth of a point. Jindal 10 points back of the two has all of the momentum in the race. Kelly Ayotte's lead in the Granite state has evaporated and she is now deadlocked with Rubio at 16.5 points apiece. Rubio has strong momentum in the state and looks to run away with undecideds which still number in the high double digits.
Upcoming republican primaries and caucuses include New Hampshire in 7 days, Florida in 12 days, South Carolina in 14 days, Nevada in 16 days, and Colorado / Minnesota in 19 days. Rubio still has a huge lead in Florida. Rubio has a few point leads in South Carolina and Colorado. Thune and Rubio are tied in Minnesota and Nevada.
| Candidate | Nat % | Delgates | Est. Del |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thune |
18.3
|
0
|
327
|
| Rubio |
19.6
|
0
|
217
|
| Christie |
13.4
|
0
|
80
|
| Jindal |
8.1
|
0
|
12
|
| Daniels |
4.2
|
0
|
55
|
| Ryan |
8.5
|
0
|
101
|
| Brownback |
3.9
|
0
|
48
|
| Ayotte |
3.7
|
0
|
12
|
General Election
Democrats had a good week as the polls moved in their favour. Colorado moved from lean Republican to tossup and the Democrats are only 4 points back in the polls. Likewise Iowa moved from lean Republican to tossup with the Dems trailing by only half a point. The Democrats also managed to move New Hampshire from tossup to lean Democratic, their lead in the Granite State is now 5 points. Viriginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Texas moved towards the Democrats and only Ohio moved towards the Republicans. Republicans are still a clear lock to win the presidency with over 270 electoral votes in the leaning Republican column.
| Party | Nat % | Δ % | Est. EV | Δ EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |
36.6
|
+0.2
|
205
|
+4
|
| Republican |
39.5
|
-0.1
|
279
|
-15
|
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