Gillibrand Campaign
The Iowa Caucuses are today and I'm still 2.5 points down.
Campaign infrastructure will be improved in New Hampshire and South Carolina. I'm visiting Iowa on the day of the Caucuses to rally support. Later in the week I'm hitting Nevada and New Hampshire before campaigning in Nevada the day of their caucuses.
I'm airing both my ads in all four states with upcoming primaries/caucuses. I'm also commissioning a third ad that centres on my immigration position.
*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.
Democratic Primary
Warner Wins Iowa! Three candidates managed to come away with more than the minimum required to gain delegates. Warner lead the way with 24.8%, followed closely by Gillibrand with 21.7% and Cuomo with 16.7%. The three candidates received 24, 23 and 18 delegates respectively.
Warner Wins Nevada! In eerily similar fashion Warner, Gillibrand and Cuomo were 1,2,3 in the popular vote. Warner hauled away 17 delegates, Gillibrand 16 and Cuomo 11.
With Warner leading Gillibrand by 4 points in New Hampshire this race could be over just as soon as it officially starts. On the positive side, Gillibrand has moved to within 0.5 points in South Carolina. Gillibrand does have enough campaign resources to make it to Super Tuesday 40 days hence.
New Hampshire Primaries are 1 day away, followed by South Carolina Primaries in 7 days.
| Candidate | Nat % | Delegates | Est. Del |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuomo |
12.2
|
29
|
163
|
| Schwietzer |
9.2
|
0
|
31
|
| Warner |
19.2
|
41
|
2324
|
| Gillibrand |
17.9
|
39
|
1958
|
| Beebe |
2.3
|
0
|
0
|
| Casey |
3.2
|
0
|
251
|
| Hagan |
5.6
|
0
|
87
|
| O'Malley |
3.5
|
0
|
120
|
Rubio Wins Iowa! The margin of victory were tens of votes in this ultra competitive caucus over South Dakota Senator John Thune. Rubio who has now moved a point up in New Hampshire over Thune and native daughter Kelly Ayotte could begin to run away with the Republican nomination.
Upcoming republican primaries and caucuses include New Hampshire in 0 days, Florida in 5 days, South Carolina in 7 days, Nevada in 9 days, Colorado / Minnesota in 12 days and Maine in 16 days. Thune and Rubio are separated in South Carolina and Nevada by only half a point. Rubio does have a slight advantage over Thune in Colorado (1 point), Minnesota (2 points) and Maine (2 points).
| Candidate | Nat % | Delegates | Est. Del |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thune |
18.6
|
0
|
297
|
| Rubio |
19.1
|
28
|
273
|
| Christie |
13.7
|
0
|
80
|
| Jindal |
8.5
|
0
|
15
|
| Daniels |
3.9
|
0
|
54
|
| Ryan |
8.4
|
0
|
102
|
| Brownback |
3.9
|
0
|
48
|
| Ayotte |
3.9
|
0
|
11
|
General Election
On this gentle see saw that is the general election the race has tilted once again back to the Republicans. New Hampshire has moved from lean Democratic to tossup and Colorado has moved from tossup to lean Republican. Republican also increased their lead in Iowa and Ohio, and decreased their deficit in Nevada.
The Democrats did managed to reduce their deficit in North Carolina to 5 points and are now only 6.5 points down in the sunshine state.
| Party | Nat % | Δ % | Est. EV | Δ EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |
36.6
|
0.0
|
201
|
-4
|
| Republican |
39.7
|
+0.2
|
288
|
+9
|
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