2016 Election - April

April 5th, 2016

Thune has officially won the republican nomination for President of the United States this week. The good news for Thune has come with mixed results in the general. Florida and Virginia moved from tossup to lean Thune while Nevada moved from lean Warner to tossup. Ohio and Michigan on the other hand have moved once again to the tossup column from lean Thune. 

Party	Nominee	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	Warner	39.8	-0.1	211	-6
Republican	Thune	42.1	+0.9	258	+18

April 12th, 2016

Tough week for Warner. He makes gains in Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin; moving each one column towards him and Thune moves the big three tossups into his column. Thune is once again poised to win the election without any support from tossup states. 

Party	Nominee	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	Warner	40.7	-0.1	220	+15
Republican	Thune	42.1	+0.0	286	+28

April 19th, 2016

Last week had a record low number of tossup states with only Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan. This week was a good week for those hoping for a close contest. Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio moved from lean Thune to tossup. Nevada and Colorado moved from lean Warner to tossup. Last week 3 this week there are 8 tossups.

The big winner was of course Warner as a close race, even one where he is still likely to lose, is a lot better than a Thune blowout.

Party	Nominee	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	Warner	41.0	+0.3	205	-15
Republican	Thune	42.5	+0.4	235	-51

April 19th, 2016

Warner for the first time has moved Iowa into his column. In turn, both Ohio and Michigan have moved into Thune's column.

Pennsylvania has seen a real shift moving from a three point republican advantage to a three and a half point democratic advantage. This leaves Virginia as the only tossup that the democrats do not currently lead in.

Warner since the middle of March has ushered his resources to bring about a tightening of the race. 

Party	Nominee	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	Warner	41.5	+0.5	211	+6
Republican	Thune	42.6	+0.1	269	+34

Election 2016 - March

Gillibrand Campaign

I've lost, though not officially. What a cruel joke being only 136 delegates behind Warner. Might as well be 136 thousand. Super tuesday was my fire wall, and it got burnt to a crisp.

I'm suspending my campaign, effective immediately. I am practising debating if Warner decides to pick me for his Vice President.

March 15th, 2016

Warner has closed the gap to within 2 points of Thune but remains as ever a distinct disadvantage in the state polls. Pennsylvania has moved from tossup to lean Thune and Nevada from lean Warner to tossup.

Party	Nominee	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	Warner	39.0	+0.8	205	-6
Republican	Thune	40.8	0.0	299	+20

March 22nd, 2016

Huge week for Warner. The state polling has shown a huge shift towards him. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan all moved from lean Thune to tossup. Nevada once again moves from tossup to lean Warner.

Party	Nominee	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	Warner	39.0	0.0	211	+6
Republican	Thune	41.2	+0.4	245	-54

March 29th, 2016

A full point towards Warner in the national polls. He still remains at a disadvantage when it comes to state polling as only Virginia and Iowa are tossups leaning his direction. 

Thune received some mixed news in the state polling this week. He managed to regain support in Michigan and Ohio moving them back to his column but lost support in Florida. Florida has slide into the tossup column.

Party	Nominee	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	Warner	39.9	+0.9	211	0
Republican	Thune	41.2	+0.0	240	-5

Election 2016 - Super Tuesday

Gillibrand Campaign

The big week is here. I have cancelled all my advertisements save for the best attack ad against Warner to purchase airtime on the networks. The national momentum and the momentum in each of the super tuesday swing states favour me. I've had momentum before in states only to see it swing against me, I'm looking for a late game changer in my direction. I'm sending out feelers to Hagan, promising a cabinet position if she throws her support behind me before the big day.

I'm campaigning in Texas and Missouri the day before the election.

Even though my campaign hinges on the result for super tuesday I cannot stop planning beyond that. I'm setting up headquarters in Mississippi and Utah.

Maine is in 10 days, Utah/Mississippi in 12, Illinois in 19 and Louisiana in 23. Warner is favoured in each of them, but I am hoping a super tuesday win will bring us neck and neck.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

Hagan endorses Gillibrand!

Even with the perfect timing of the Hagan endorsement super tuesday was a shellacking. Warner won Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts  Minnesota, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia. A day later he also picked up Hawaii.

While the delegate allocation makes the victory a bit hollow Warner is poised to easily win 23 of the remaining states, contest in 8 and only lose 4. It does appear to be that Warner will win the democratic nominee for president of the United States.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	15.3	316	494
Warner	28.3	627	2580
Gillibrand	26.1	491	1991
Casey	7.1	0	92
Hagan	0.4	0	0
O'Malley	4.1	0	56

Republican Primary

Ayotte Endorses Rubio!

Thune wins in Washington, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts  North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia.

In mirror fashion a single nominee won all super tuesday states. The contest appears to be all but over as Thune has amassed a substantial lead of over 550 delegates.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Thune	28.2	708	1473
Rubio	24.2	140	202
Christie	16.5	11	88
Daniels	6.9	4	57
Ryan	11.2	8	112
Ayotte	0.9	0	0

General Election

While not official it appears to that this race will now be Thune vs Warner. News of this development pushed polling back towards the republican with a Wisconsin moving once again to the lean republican column.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	38.1	-0.2	211	0
Republican	40.8	+0.2	279	+10

Election 2016 - Arizona Primary

Gillibrand Campaign

With only two weeks separating us from super tuesday this is my last chance to build infrastructure to get out the vote. I'm building in Tennessee and Oklahoma.

This week I'm campaigning in Vermont, Missouri, Texas and on the day of the primary Arizona.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

Warner wins in Arizona!

Warner won Arizona but by less points than predicted. Gillibrand has positioned herself to pick up the majority of delegates on super tuesday, now just 5 days away.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	13.5	77	175
Warner	24.0	107	2735
Gillibrand	22.8	102	2034
Casey	6.3	0	138
Hagan	6.9	0	53
O'Malley	3.6	0	78

Republican Primary

Jindal endorses Thune! Thune wins both Arizona and Michigan!

The majority of supporters that once followed Jindal have shifted with the Governor's endorsement of Thune. Thune finds himself in the drivers seat just 5 days before super tuesday with most of the states favouring him for republican nominee.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Thune	25.5	174	1157
Rubio	22.4	122	197
Christie	15.1	2	80
Jindal	1.2	0	0
Daniels	5.3	0	55
Ryan	11.2	0	111
Ayotte	4.1	4	13

General Election

For the first time this election cycle the republicans are not outright winners of the election. Republicans are still very much in charge as they lead in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Wisconsin.

Democrats move three states closer with Colorado shifting from lean republican to tossup and both New Hampshire and Nevada moving from tossup to lean democratic.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	38.3	+0.2	211	+10
Republican	40.6	+0.2	269	-9

Election 2016 - Super Tuesday 2 weeks out

Gillibrand Campaign

With Schweitzer's endorsement I have my first lead nationally and am tied in every upcoming super tuesday state save Virginia.

With the completion of my first network ad. I'm taking a few cable advertisements off the air. The networks are about 5 times more expensive than cable and I'll need the money to air the ad for these final 3 weeks.

My get out the vote operation has been built in Minnesota and Georgia, leaving 4 states without the apparatus.

This week I am making campaign stops in Georgia, Minnesota, Colorado and Massachusetts. I hope to capitilize on the recent infrastructure improvements to drive voters to me.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

Another week another endorsement. Governor Beebe has endorsed Senator Warner for democratic nominee. With the endorsement Warner once again becomes the front runner for the nomination. The estimated delegate counter has risen over the minimum needed for victory for Senator Warner. If he can hold off Gillibrand on super tuesday he is poised to run the table and win the nomination.

There are 5 days till Arizona and 12 days to super tuesday with Hawaii the day after.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	13.3	56	145
Warner	23.7	77	2809
Gillibrand	22.2	73	2080
Beebe	0.1	0	0
Casey	6.2	0	251
Hagan	6.8	0	53
O'Malley	3.5	0	78

Republican Primary

Thune received the endorsement of Governor Brownback. The endorsement has given Thune a bump to become tied with Rubio nationally.

With Arizona and Michigan 5 days away either of the big two candidates could still propel themselves to front runner status before super tuesday 12 days hence.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Thune	21.3	128	518
Rubio	21.3	109	249
Christie	14.3	2	80
Jindal	8.3	0	61
Daniels	5.2	0	55
Ryan	8.7	0	58
Brownback	0.5	0	0
Ayotte	3.9	4	12

General Election

A mixed bag of results this week. The democrats are able to move Wisconsin for the first time from lean republican to tossup. The republicans moved Colorado from tossup to lean republican, and both Nevada and New Hampshire from lean democratic to tossup.

The current tossup situation has the republicans: down by four in New Hampshire, down by one and a half in Virginia, down by one in Nevada, up by one and a half in Iowa, up by two in Pennsylvania, and up by three and a half in Wisconsin. If the races were to be called today the republicans would add 36 electoral votes and the democrats would add 23 electoral votes.

As is the case in every general election matchup in 2016 the republicans have enough electoral votes in the lean republican category to win the election without the above mentioned tossups.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	38.1	+0.6	201	-10
Republican	40.4	+0.1	278	-1

2016 Election - Super Tuesday 3 weeks out

Gillibrand Campaign

I'm building campaign operations in Massachusetts and Colorado. Half of the 12 targeted states do not currently have get out of the vote operations with 3 weeks left.

I am still approaching Schweitzer about a possible endorsement ahead of the big week. The talks look promising but he is a hard man to read.

I'm set to campaign in Arizona and Virginia. Looking to swing a few delegates from the Virginian Senator to my camp.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

In a stunning turn of events Governor Schweitzer has endorsed Senator Gillibrand for the Democratic Nomination! This in a week without any primaries Gillibrand has won big.

Warner has given up his lead in all the upcoming contests save for his home state of Virginia. This really has become a dog fight.

 Arizona is 12 days away and 19 days from now is super tuesday.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	12.9	56	56
Schwietzer	0.4	0	0
Warner	21.7	77	2235
Gillibrand	22.2	73	2196
Beebe	2.6	0	18
Casey	6.0	0	251
Hagan	6.0	0	58
O'Malley	3.6	0	120

Republican Primary

Thune by a hair! Thune strikes ahead of Rubio in the number of delegates won as he picks up all 24 from Maine.

With Arizona 2 weeks away and Super Tuesday a week after there is no clear favourite in the race for republican

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Thune	19.0	128	427
Rubio	20.5	109	370
Christie	14.1	2	79
Jindal	8.4	0	61
Daniels	4.3	0	55
Ryan	8.7	0	52
Brownback	4.0	0	48
Ayotte	3.9	4	13

General Election

Colorado has moved from lean republican to tossup and New Hampshire has moved from tossup to lean democratic.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	37.5	-0.2	211	+4
Republican	40.3	+0.2	279	-9

Humpty Dumpty - A Metaphor for Peace

The modern version of the nursery rhyme is...

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king's horses and all the king's men
Couldn't put Humpty together again

Humpty Dumpty is a metaphor for peace.

We build instruments of war as a deterrent, so that we may preserve peace. In medieval times you built castles to hold onto key pieces of land. In addition these castles were there to protect the peasants that worked the land. This is the part of the poem where Humpty is sitting on the wall. We've deluded ourselves into believing that peace can be preserved through the preparation for war.

Ironically this deterrent system actually pushes us into preemptive strikes. We convince ourselves that the other side is going to attack and in order to save lives, we need to attack first. Humpty, peace, is broken through this war preparation. The engine of war having been revved by both sides is unleashed.

The third line represents the war itself. Who fights this war, the king's horses and men. All their fighting is in vain as the peace, as they knew it, can never be put back together. People will die, animals will be slaughtered and farms will be burned.

2016 Election - South Carolina Primaries

Gillibrand Campaign

I've accepted an offer to appear on the Rachel Maddow Show. If my appearance goes well it will give my campaign a much needed jolt of energy.

My message is not sinking in, I keep losing states by three points to Warner. In order to shake things up I've begun discussions with Schweitzer about an official endorsement. He said he would think about it and get back to me by next week.

I'm building get out the vote operations in Missouri and Virginia. Even in my wildest dreams I don't expect to win Warner's home state but getting over the 15% hurdle will allow me to win some delegates in the state.

I'm spending today campaigning in South Carolina before studying the issues.

My first negative campaign has been completed, it's tough and I hope voters in the swing states don't hold it against me. I've commissioning a second attack ad against Warner. I need to blunt his momentum ahead of super tuesday or the race will be all but over.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

Warner has won South Carolina over Gillibrand and has earned 23 pledged delegates, close behind Gillibrand earned herself 22 delegates and the only other candidate to do so was Governor Cuomo with 17 delegates.

While Gillibrand has not fallen behind in the delegate count, losing four straight contests to her rival Warner has moved all the momentum into his corner.

 Arizona is 19 days away followed by super tuesday 26 days later.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	12.0	56	56
Schwietzer	9.5	0	23
Warner	20.2	77	2615
Gillibrand	18.4	73	2077
Beebe	2.4	0	0
Casey	3.3	0	251
Hagan	5.7	0	71
O'Malley	3.4	0	120

Republican Primary

This past week has been a boon for Senator Thune. He won in Minnesota, Colorado and South Carolina. Senator Rubio won only in Nevada. Each of these states award all of their delegates to the winner allowing Thune to catch up to Rubio in the pledged delegate count.

Upcoming contests in the republican primaries include Maine in a week. After which the campaigns will look to Arizona and Michigan in 3 week. All three of these states could go to either Rubio or Thune.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Thune	18.9	104	247
Rubio	20.4	109	453
Christie	13.9	2	80
Jindal	8.3	0	15
Daniels	4.2	0	54
Ryan	8.7	0	98
Brownback	4.0	0	49
Ayotte	3.9	4	13

General Election

As more of the electorate has moved from undecided to leaning towards a particular party the race is expected to shift. This week the polls have moved almost a point in the democrats favour. In statewide polling this has seen them take a 5 point lead in Nevada moving the state from tossup to lean democrat. Democrats have also managed to move Pennsylvania back to the tossup closing the republican lead to only 3 points. Republicans did move into a tie in Virginia and pushed their lead in North Carolina to 8 points.

Republicans still have enough support to lose all the swing states and still win the presidency.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	37.3	+0.9	207	+6
Republican	40.0	+0.1	288	-20

Blue Jays 2013 Lineup

With TSN reporting that Melky Cabrera has signed a two year contract with the Blue Jays the 2013 lineup is starting to take shape. Using player statistics from fangraphs over the last three seasons, I'm going to predict the run totals above average for the next season. I used the generated AB for 2013 by Rotochamp's simulation version 2013.03.

Pos	Player	AB	Fielding	Batting	Rep	AB	RAR/AB	RAR	WAR
C	JP Arencibia	425	3.1	-13.9	29.8	825	0.0230	9.79	0.98
1B	Adam Lind	425	-36.4	-15.6	50.3	1389	-0.0012	-0.52	-0.05
2B	Emilio Bonifacio	490	-2.9	14	37.2	989	0.0488	23.93	2.39
3B	Brett Lawrie	535	14.6	15.6	23.6	644	0.0835	44.69	4.47
SS	Jose Reyes	555	8	57.3	63.5	1742	0.0739	41.04	4.10
RF	Jose Bautista	475	-26.4	142.3	57.9	1414	0.1229	58.38	5.84
CF	Colby Rasmus	500	-10.1	15.3	56.2	1500	0.0409	20.47	2.05
LF	Melky Cabrera	545	-27.4	43.5	57.2	1575	0.0465	25.36	2.54
DH	Edwin Encarnacion	515	-38.7	57.6	51.4	1355	0.0804	41.43	4.14
C	John Buck	250	21.3	-10.1	45.5	1218	0.0466	11.64	1.16
1B	David Cooper	160	-8.3	-0.4	7.5	211	-0.0057	-0.91	-0.09
IF	Maicer Izturis	295	4.6	-1.4	35	950	0.0402	11.86	1.19
OF	Rajai Davis	270	-27.6	-4	46.2	1292	0.0113	3.05	0.31
IF	Mike McCoy	120	10.6	-17.1	12.5	331	0.0181	2.18	0.22

The columns Fielding, Batting, Rep, AB, and RAR/AB are using statistics from 2010 to 2012 provided by Fangraphs. 

The column AB is an exrapolation of 2013 numbers provided by Rotochamp. 

The RAR and WAR columns are calculated using the other columns to predict player output. 

It should also be noted that Encranacion does not have his fielding applied to his total as he is the DH. 

What instantly pops out from the extrapolation are the poor numbers by Adam Lind. Encarnacion would be a big upgrade at first base but his fielding isn't any better than Linds. 

2016 Election - New Hampshire Primary

Gillibrand Campaign

I lost by three points in Iowa and Nevada. I only have 2 less pledged delegates than Warner but he has more momentum in the race. The New Hampshire Primary is today; I'm four points down with a lot of momentum but momentum didn't help me in Nevada. After New Hampshire there is only South Carolina, in 7 days, before a month long break.

I'm planning on making my last stand on super tuesday where 10 states go to the polls, those being: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Georgia, Oklahoma, Colorado, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. I'm blanketing the state in three advertisements for the next 6 weeks. In between super tuesday and today Arizona has a primary and the day after super tuesday Hawaii elects its delegates by caucus.

I'm commissioning my first negative attack ad of the campaign, I'm hitting Warner on his lack of leadership while in the senate. It will be done by next week and I can air it across super tuesday states.

I'm building infrastructure to help get out the vote in Arizona and Texas. I'm spending today campaigning in New Hampshire before I brush up on the issues. After cramming my head full of knowledge I'll campaign in South Carolina two days straight.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

Warner Wins New Hampshire! In what is soon becoming a trademark, Warner wins another democratic contest by 3 points over Gillibrand. Cuomo comes a distant third, 8 points back of Warner. These three candidates split the delegates 13, 12 & 10.

Gillibrand despite this being the third time she has come up short is only 3 delegates behind frontrunner Warner. Super tueday could be the end of her campaign, she is running behind Warner by 4 points in 5 of the 10 states with all the momentum on Warner's side.

Cuomo the only other candidate with pledged delegates is not favoured to win any state including his home state of New York where he battles fellow New Yorker Gillibrand for the honour.

South Carolina Primaries are today, Arizona 26 days away followed by super tuesday 33 days from today.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	12.2	39	173
Schwietzer	9.3	0	31
Warner	19.6	54	2290
Gillibrand	17.9	51	1952
Beebe	2.3	0	30
Casey	3.2	0	251
Hagan	5.7	0	87
O'Malley	3.4	0	120

Republican Primary

Native Daughter Ayotte crowned winner in New Hampshire. The junior senator from the granite state comes away with an 8 point win mere days after polls indicated a three way tie with Rubio and Thune. New Hampshire is one of the states that award delegates proportional to voting and Ayotte picked up 4 delegates. Also picking up delegates are Senator Thune, Senator Rubio and Governor Christie.

Senator Rubio won his home state of Florida a few days later by over twenty points. The sunshine state is winner take all and Rubio collects all 50 delegates for his efforts.

Neither contest is expected to shift the race much as most already expected Ayotte and Rubio to win their home states. The real test for campaigns will be in South Carolina today, Nevada 2 days from now and Colorado/Minnesota later this week. 9 days from now Maine holds their Caucuses

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Thune	18.3	3	109
Rubio	20.3	81	460
Christie	13.8	2	80
Jindal	8.3	0	15
Daniels	4.3	0	53
Ryan	8.6	0	103
Brownback	3.9	0	48
Ayotte	3.8	4	12

General Election

Further movement this week towards the republicans, Pennsylvania has moved from tossup to lean Republican. The Republicans moved one solid step closer to a landslide this election cycle. Not everything is doom and gloom in Democratic lands, of the four remaining tossups Democrats are behind in only one; Iowa. They lead in Nevada, Virginia and New Hampshire. If the election were held today, Democrats would still be well short of victory. Even with those tossups added to their column they would only have 224 electoral votes out of a needed 270.

Republicans lead in Pennsylvania by 4, Wisconsin by 5, North Carolina by 5, Colorado by 5, Ohio by 5.5, and Michigan by 6.5. State polls, in addition to national polls shows a large advantage for Republicans.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	36.4	-0.2	201	0
Republican	39.9	+0.2	308	+20

2016 Election - Iowa and Nevada decided

Gillibrand Campaign

The Iowa Caucuses are today and I'm still 2.5 points down.

Campaign infrastructure will be improved in New Hampshire and South Carolina. I'm visiting Iowa on the day of the Caucuses to rally support. Later in the week I'm hitting Nevada and New Hampshire before campaigning in Nevada the day of their caucuses.

I'm airing both my ads in all four states with upcoming primaries/caucuses. I'm also commissioning a third ad that centres on my immigration position.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

Warner Wins Iowa! Three candidates managed to come away with more than the minimum required to gain delegates. Warner lead the way with 24.8%, followed closely by Gillibrand with 21.7% and Cuomo with 16.7%. The three candidates received 24, 23 and 18 delegates respectively.

Warner Wins Nevada! In eerily similar fashion Warner, Gillibrand and Cuomo were 1,2,3 in the popular vote. Warner hauled away 17 delegates, Gillibrand 16 and Cuomo 11. 

With Warner leading Gillibrand by 4 points in New Hampshire this race could be over just as soon as it officially starts. On the positive side, Gillibrand has moved to within 0.5 points in South Carolina. Gillibrand does have enough campaign resources to make it to Super Tuesday 40 days hence.

New Hampshire Primaries are 1 day away, followed by South Carolina Primaries in 7 days.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	12.2	29	163
Schwietzer	9.2	0	31
Warner	19.2	41	2324
Gillibrand	17.9	39	1958
Beebe	2.3	0	0
Casey	3.2	0	251
Hagan	5.6	0	87
O'Malley	3.5	0	120

Republican Primary

Rubio Wins Iowa! The margin of victory were tens of votes in this ultra competitive caucus over South Dakota Senator John Thune. Rubio who has now moved a point up in New Hampshire over Thune and native daughter Kelly Ayotte could begin to run away with the Republican nomination.

Upcoming republican primaries and caucuses include New Hampshire in 0 days, Florida in 5 days, South Carolina in 7 days, Nevada in 9 days, Colorado / Minnesota in 12 days and Maine in 16 days. Thune and Rubio are separated in South Carolina and Nevada by only half a point. Rubio does have a slight advantage over Thune in Colorado (1 point), Minnesota (2 points) and Maine (2 points).

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Thune	18.6	0	297
Rubio	19.1	28	273
Christie	13.7	0	80
Jindal	8.5	0	15
Daniels	3.9	0	54
Ryan	8.4	0	102
Brownback	3.9	0	48
Ayotte	3.9	0	11

General Election

On this gentle see saw that is the general election the race has tilted once again back to the Republicans. New Hampshire has moved from lean Democratic to tossup and Colorado has moved from tossup to lean Republican. Republican also increased their lead in Iowa and Ohio, and decreased their deficit in Nevada.

The Democrats did managed to reduce their deficit in North Carolina to 5 points and are now only 6.5 points down in the sunshine state.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	36.6	0.0	201	-4
Republican	39.7	+0.2	288	+9

Blue Jays Trade

From initial TSN reports this trade looks to be a gigantic get for the Blue Jays. They picked up talented players, some in positions they are already stocked in but they had to pay for it with young players and prospects.

To the Jays
SP - Mark Buehele
SP - Josh Johnson
SS - Jose Reyes
C  - John Buck
CF - Emilio Bonifacio

To the Marlins
SP - Henderson Alvarez
SS - Yunel Escobar
SS - Adeiny Hechavarria
SP - Justin Nicolino
CF - Jake Marisnick
C  - Jeff Mathis

Could the acquisition of John Buck spell the end for JP Arencibia? There is a bit of a logjam at the catcher position with Buck, Arencibia, and hotshot rookie Travis D'arnaud all capable of playing in the major leagues.

The blue jays have a deep prospect pool especially in starting pitchers. The loss of Nicolino hurts but Syndergaard, Sanchez, Osuna and Stroman still combine for one of the most promising stable of starting pitchers in the majors.

Marisnick is a great prospect, ranked the 2nd best prospect in the blue jays system by baseball america, but the jays have two players ahead of him on the depth chart. 25 year old start Colby Rasmus and recent graduate Anthony Gose. With Emilio Bonifacio coming to Toronto in the trade that adds another player who prefers to play CF. Sad to see him go, he is going to be a good if not all star CF but AA is dealing from another position with depth.

Now to the fun part, the math of it all. The easiest comparison is the addition of Jose Reyes and the loss of Yunel Escobar. Escobar over the last 3 years has put up a WAR of 9 and Reyes over the same time period put up a WAR of 9.7. You could say slight advantage Toronto but that doesn't show the whole story. Escobars oWAR is 5.8 while Reyes' is 13.2. Toronto in search of a lead off bat has sacrificed defensive ability at SS in order to add just that.

A blue jays starting 4 of Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, and Hutchinson has been transformed into a starting 4 of Romero, Morrow, Buehrle and Johnson. It's a bit of an upgrade.

The 3 through 6 pitchers on the jays were all average, posting a WAR between 0 and 0.2. Replace two of those with Buehrle who averages 3.5 and Johnson's 3 and you are 6 wins closer to the playoffs. This doesn't include the additional rest that the bullpen will have not having to bailout sub-par starters. Both of these new jay starters have the potential to be all-star calibre and post seasons of 5 or 6 WAR. If Romero returns to form, as he will have a lot less pressure to lead the staff, you could see 4 starting pitchers that could be considered all-stars, and blue jay baseball in October.

2016 Election - Iowa Caucuses 1 week out

Gillibrand Campaign

The Iowa Caucuses are 7 days away, Nevada Caucuses are 13 days away, New Hampshire Primary 14 days away and South Carolina Primary 21 days away.

Last weeks activities has given me to a moderate amount of momentum in Iowa and Nevada. I am going to continue building campaign infrastructure in Nevada and start in New Hampshire.

My campaign stops will include 2 stops in Iowa, a stop in New Hampshire and a stop in Nevada.

The advertisement I commissioned talking about my Leadership abilities will debut in all four states starting today. I've commissioned another advertisement talking about my position for taxes.

*It should be noted that the Gillibrand campaign refers to the planning of a week and the results are shown below.

Democratic Primary

Warner has a 2.5 point lead in Iowa but Gillibrand has strong momentum. A similar situation has developed in Nevada with Warner's lead a single point and Gillibrand having a moderate amount of momentum. Warner has opened a 4.5 point gap over Gillibrand in South Carolina and Gillibrand has shrunk Warner's lead to 2.5 points in New Hampshire.

Nevada Caucuses are in 6 days, New Hampshire Primaries 7 days and South Carolina Primaries in 14 days.

Candidate	Nat %	Delegates	Est. Del
Cuomo	12.2	0	134
Schwietzer	9.3	0	31
Warner	19.0	0	2345
Gillibrand	17.8	0	1966
Beebe	2.3	0	0
Casey	3.0	0	251
Hagan	5.6	0	87
O'Malley	3.3	0	120

Republican Primary

The Day before the Iowa Caucuses with Rubio and Thune are separated by a tenth of a point. Jindal 10 points back of the two has all of the momentum in the race. Kelly Ayotte's lead in the Granite state has evaporated and she is now deadlocked with Rubio at 16.5 points apiece. Rubio has strong momentum in the state and looks to run away with undecideds which still number in the high double digits.

Upcoming republican primaries and caucuses include New Hampshire in 7 days, Florida in 12 days, South Carolina in 14 days, Nevada in 16 days, and Colorado / Minnesota in 19 days. Rubio still has a huge lead in Florida. Rubio has a few point leads in South Carolina and Colorado. Thune and Rubio are tied in Minnesota and Nevada.

Candidate	Nat %	Delgates	Est. Del
Thune	18.3	0	327
Rubio	19.6	0	217
Christie	13.4	0	80
Jindal	8.1	0	12
Daniels	4.2	0	55
Ryan	8.5	0	101
Brownback	3.9	0	48
Ayotte	3.7	0	12

General Election

Democrats had a good week as the polls moved in their favour. Colorado moved from lean Republican to tossup and the Democrats are only 4 points back in the polls. Likewise Iowa moved from lean Republican to tossup with the Dems trailing by only half a point. The Democrats also managed to move New Hampshire from tossup to lean Democratic, their lead in the Granite State is now 5 points. Viriginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Texas moved towards the Democrats and only Ohio moved towards the Republicans. Republicans are still a clear lock to win the presidency with over 270 electoral votes in the leaning Republican column.

Party	Nat %	Δ %	Est. EV	Δ EV
Democratic	36.6	+0.2	205	+4
Republican	39.5	-0.1	279	-15